The movement toward autonomous vehicles is inevitable and has been on going almost since the first horseless carriage hit the road. However there are many roadblocks that will need to addressed along the way to a completely autonomous vehicle. The largest problem is the need for mass quantities of autonomous vehicles to be in use in order to attain maximum reduction in costs and societal benefits. Even if there was a fully functioning prototype today it would take over 20 years in order to achieve a complete turnover in the vehicle fleet. In addition there are large challenges that the technology has to face in order to achieve full self-driving capabilities. In addition there are many challenges that the current market will face in order to see full adoption of the technology by consumers. However, despite the challenges that face self-driving vehicles there are great societal benefits as well as benefits for individual consumers.
Even once there is a development of a prototype there are three main challenges to mass adoption facing the market today. The first is the large costs to both the consumers and the manufacturers. Hardware and software costs today are estimated to be around $75,000, which is 2.5 times the average cost of a vehicle today. In addition OEMs will most likely be held liable for accidents involving self-driving cars. The next large obstacle is consumer acceptance of the technology. Heavy media attention to the first failures in the technology may cause consumers to reject the technology. Thirdly, cars today are seen as a status symbol and part of self-identity. The first autonomous vehicles would be limited in body style and type and therefore may be rejected by those who have high preferences for specific body styles and brands.
Although it may be a long time before there is a widespread acceptance of self-driving technology, there are large potential benefits and impacts for society. The first would be a reduction in traffic accidents and accident related deaths. Today there are 11 million accidents in the United States every year that result in 33,000 deaths and $300 billion in additional costs. In order to reduce these costs complete self-driving capabilities are not necessary, but will result in the largest impact. In addition self-driving vehicles would allow for additional leisure travel by improving the travel experience. Also there will be a reduction in short flight traffic because driving will become more preferable. People will be able to travel on their own schedule and avoid the extra stress of airports. Traffic will also decrease if there is a full adoption of autonomous vehicles. All vehicles on the highway could then break and accelerate in unison, reducing traffic backup.
Self-driving cars would also have impacts on asset utilization. Today vehicle utilization is around 10% of its maximum capability. Therefore with self-driving vehicles that are publicly owned vehicle utilization would increase. However, this is limited by high demand during rush hours. Also self-driving vehicles could decrease the cost of ride sharing services, which in turn would decrease the use of public transportation.
There are also personal benefits for individual consumers. One such benefit would be increased mobility for the elderly and disabled. These individuals could regain control of their own mobility and not rely on other forms of transportation. This also means that there will be an increase in consumer base because these individuals who could not previously use personal cars can now. Also there would increased leisure or work time for individuals. Instead of having to spend 45 minutes operating a vehicle to work, an individual could spend those 45 minutes doing other things while riding in his self-driving vehicle.
The current state of autonomous vehicles however is not even close to a fully functioning prototype. Today there still isn’t even a product with fully functioning self-driving highway capabilities. Highway driving is seen to be the easiest application for the self-driving technologies, but the technology is still not fully functioning in all weather conditions. The truth is that there are still huge limitations in the technology that will be incredibly difficult to overcome. Elon Musk, who is large proponent of autonomous vehicles, stated “My opinion is it’s a bridge too far to go to fully autonomous cars. It’s incredibly hard to get the last few percent.”[1]
Beyond the challenges facing consumer adoption, there are still large limitations in the technology itself. There will need to be large scale changes in road infrastructure that will need to be tailored to sensor technology. Today road signs, traffic signs, and other markers are designed for human eyes. There would need to be changes made on almost all of the 4 million miles of road in the United States in order for self-driving technology to be able to function maximally. In addition today’s sensors have difficulty during rain and snow. Therefore these vehicles will not be able to perform in all weather conditions yet. Also self-driving technology could be subject to hacking or viruses in ways that other technology currently face. Therefore this could lead to large scale safety issues that would lead to less drivable hours by the autonomous vehicles.
Despite all of the challenges there are still large investments from OEMs, technology companies and ride-share apps, like Uber. Currently OEMs, like Mercedes, are using their self-driving prototypes for advertising in order to display the “innovative image” of the brand. However all three of the business types are investing in self-driving technology in order to achieve a larger impact on the market. Although increasing autonomy of vehicles may lead to decreased numbers of vehicles it will also lead to higher turnover is the publicly owned vehicles. Therefore OEMs do not face as large of a negative impact that would have been originally thought.
The automotive industry will continue to step toward a self-driving future through advanced autonomous features. Private ownership will continue for the foreseeable future even once self-driving vehicles become available for many of reasons discussed including cost, American lifestyle, and the technology adoption curve.
However once we have fully autonomous vehicles, the benefits will be tremendous. For the average American this could mean an extra 45 minutes to their day. Given most people are awake for 16-18 hours per day, this is a dramatic improvement in time spent being productive (or not). It will be up to the consumer to choose how to use their time spent commuting. Additionally, we have an aging population that will benefit from self-driving vehicles. This will allow people mobility beyond that available today.
The future is bright with self-driving vehicles. However the road to complete autonomy is long and filled with many challenges.
[1] Financial Times. Tesla moves ahead of Google in race to build self-driving cars. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/70d26288-1faf-11e3-8861-00144feab7de.html#axzz3oYxc8IBn